It's been said dozens of times before, but award shows are bollocks. Most are just the entertainment industry patting itself on the back whilst beautiful people show off their latest designer gowns, designer spouses and half-assed activist pet projects. There are maybe three or four even remotely notable, those being the Emmys (even though television is a dying medium and has less worth celebrating every year), the Grammys (even though they're always five years behind the latest developments in music), the Tonys (even though nobody outside of New York has ever seen the nominees) and the Academy Awards. I'm here to talk about the latter.
With nominations just released today, I thought it would be totally rad and not at all cliche to dedicate a post to my predictions. I'll stick to a familiar "will win, should win" format, with "shouldn't win"s wherever appropriate or wherever James Cameron is nominated. Let's go!
Best Picture
Will Win: The Hurt Locker - Have you ever seen a movie so good you have trouble explaining why? The Hurt Locker is a very straightforward war film done very well. The characters feel real, the emotions generated are genuine and the action and suspense is maddening. The Hurt Locker tells a good story in a great way, without being stylish or preachy.
Should Win: The Hurt Locker
Shouldn't Win: Avatar - As a technological achievement, it's brilliant. The fact that a sci-fi movie has done as well as this has is great. Avatar is the most visually stunning movie to come out in the past decade. It is not a good movie. The plot is tired, the characters, particularly the villains, are flat and exaggerated, the dialogue is classic Cameron, and it forces emotion at every corner. Avatar is a phenomenon, not a film.
Best Director
Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) - Award shows love a good story, they love to make a statement. Bigelow would be the first woman to win the award, and that's exciting. It's not as though she doesn't deserve the award, she most certainly does, but whenever Hollywood can make a statement on equality, they leap on the opportunity.
Should Win: Jason Reitman (Up in the Air) - Up in the Air is a wonderful film, touching on both current economic situations and modern American philosophy. Were it not for The Hurt Locker, there'd be no question that this would deserve Best Picture. Because I think Reitman deserves something for his effort and because Up in the Air was the better-directed movie, I would like to see him win this.
Shouldn't Win: James Cameron (Avatar) - It's not as if he's not talented, but his talents are limited to action sequences. The battle scenes in Avatar are fun to watch, easy to follow and exciting, but the rest of the film is less so. For making a fake nature documentary with stock characters, bad dialogue and a tired plot, Cameron's skill is clearly elsewhere.
I'm skipping over the acting ones because frankly I haven't seen any of the Best Actress nominations and I still feel that a performance is only as good as it is written and directed, so I'm not one to make knowledgeable comparisons. Sorry Clooney, I loves ya, but you don't get a prize for having the sense to do a movie with Reitman.
Oh, except for Sharlto Copley, from District 9, he deserves recognition because he was great, except he wasn't nominated, so my statement stands.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: The Hurt Locker - This was a difficult pick because every screenplay nominated was really pretty good. Hurt Locker doesn't stand out in particular, but I have a feeling the awards will be good to the movie in general.
Should Win: Inglourious Basterds - Nobody writes a movie like Quinten Tarantino, as far as I'm concerned, and Basterds is some of his sharpest writing since Reservoir Dogs. The script is very typical for Tarantino, but in the best way.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: Up in the Air - It's funny, it's believable, it's personal and it's good. I'm not confident that Up in the Air has this award in the bag, but I can't really see any reason why it wouldn't win.
Should Win: Up in the Air.
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: Up - Up won this 15 minutes in.
Should Win: Up
Now for the minor awards, or at least the ones for which I have opinions.
Best Original Score
Should Win: Up - Sure, it's all just variations on the same simple song, but for that song to be effectively used for everything from refreshing childhood naiveté, crushing sorrow and loss, adventure, danger, and all else is impressive.
Best Original Song
Will Win: Who knows?
Should Win (but wasn't nominated): "All is Love" from Where the Wild Things Are - Karen O and the Kids - Yes, it should.
Above: A winner.
Best Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, Art Direction, Cinematography and Visual Effects
Should Win: Avatar - Here's what that movie was good at, here's where it deserves recognition. The film looks and sounds great, if nothing else.
Best Seriously, Give this Film Something, it Deserves It
Should Win: District 9 - This movie deserves way more recognition than it's going to get, because everything it's up against in any category is better. Still, I'm sad to see that there's no real place for District 9 in my predictions list.
So that's what I have to say about what I care about in this year's Oscar nominations. The actual ceremony is during Spring Break, so I imagine I'll have better things to do than watch CBS to see Hollywood jack itself off, but I'll be back to comment once I'm made aware of the results.
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